The 24 terms behind every profitable bet, in plain language — each linked to a deeper explainer or a free calculator where the math matters.
A bet on which team wins the game outright — no point spread. Prices are quoted in American odds: −150 means risk $150 to win $100; +130 means risk $100 to win $130.
A handicap that levels the matchup: the favorite must win by more than the spread, the underdog covers by losing by less (or winning). Spread prices usually sit near −110 on both sides — the gap to 50/50 is the vig.
A bet on the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number. Totals react to pace, weather and lineups, which is why sharp totals bettors specialize.
The bookmaker's margin baked into every price. At −110/−110 both sides imply 52.38%, summing to 104.76% — the extra 4.76% is the vig. Strip it with the no-vig calculator.
The share of matched handle the book expects to keep on a market — the vig expressed from the book's side. Lower hold means fairer prices; sharp books run 2–3% holds, recreational books often 5%+.
The win rate at which a price breaks even: 1 ÷ decimal odds. −110 implies 52.38%. Implied probabilities still contain the vig, so they always sum past 100% across a market.
The price after the bookmaker's margin is removed — the market's actual probability estimate. Comparing a book's posted price to the sharp no-vig consensus is how +EV spots are found.
The long-run average profit of a bet: EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p). A bet is +EV when the offered price beats your fair win probability. Full explainer · calculator.
Your advantage over the price, usually quoted in percent: a 55% shot priced at an implied 52% is a ~3% edge. Real, sustainable edges on major markets are small — typically 1–5%.
Beating the final pre-game price: bet +105, closes −102, you captured CLV. Because closing lines are the sharpest probability estimates available, consistent CLV is the standard proof a bettor is good rather than lucky. Full explainer.
The last price before a game starts, after all news and sharp money is absorbed — the most efficient number in the market and the benchmark CLV is measured against.
A sudden, synchronized line move across many books at once, usually triggered by respected (sharp) money. Chasing steam late — after slower books have already moved — is how bettors get the worst of it.
Sharp: a bettor (or book) whose action moves markets and beats the close. Square: recreational money the books happily accept. Sharp books like Pinnacle post low-vig lines and welcome winners; square books limit them.
Checking the same bet across many books and taking the best price. The single highest-ROI habit in betting: −105 instead of −110 on every bet compounds to several units a season. Full explainer.
Backing every outcome at prices that sum under 100% implied, locking a profit whichever way it lands. Real but operationally fiddly — books move lines mid-placement and limit habitual arbers. Calculator.
Two bets on the same market whose numbers leave a window where both win — e.g. under 47.5 at one book, over 44.5 at another: land 45–47 and both cash. Cheap lottery tickets with capped downside when the window is priced right.
The stake size that maximizes long-run bankroll growth: f = (dp − 1) ÷ (d − 1). Full Kelly assumes your probability is exact, so practitioners bet ¼–½ Kelly. Calculator · explainer.
A bettor's standard stake, usually 1–2% of bankroll. Quoting results in units (+14.2u) instead of dollars makes records comparable across bankroll sizes.
Sizing bets so no run of bad luck can knock you out: fixed units or fractional Kelly, never chasing losses, and treating the bankroll as the tool of the trade rather than spending money.
One ticket combining multiple legs; every leg must win. Payouts multiply, but so does the vig on each leg — which is why books promote parlays relentlessly. True combined odds are the product of the legs' decimal prices.
A bet on something other than the final result — a player's points, a pitcher's strikeouts. Props are priced with less attention than main markets, so they carry both softer lines and lower limits.
Season-long bets (champion, win totals, awards) settled months out. High hold and dead money tied up for months — the price you pay for sweat that lasts a season.
A tie against the number — the spread or total lands exactly on the line. Stakes are refunded. Half-point lines (−3.5) exist specifically to eliminate pushes.
The maximum a book will take on a bet — and its most honest opinion of you. Books raise limits for losing players and cut them for winners, which is why getting limited is a badge of honor among sharps.